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PGA Hot Topics
By Bryan Douglass
~ Hot Topic of the Week ~
- What They Don't Tell You
This will be quick and painless and I'm hoping this isn't news to any of you. If you have read throughout the season you know the fantasy perspective I hold on Tiger... in short, he's average and ordinary thus treat and value him on par with every other golfer in the field.
This week you will hear some suggest this particular venue, the historic links of St. Andrews, is a brief but undeniable exception to the rule. I disagree, and here is why.
- If there is one specific fact in Tiger's performance thus far that is bothering me, it is his lack of consistency with the driver. Tiger has noted those problems himself, and while he suggests he left his last start seeing progress with the long stick, the truth is he was abhorrent. The man barely made the cut and would not have made it to Sunday if they had enforced the secondary execution. He hasn't registered enough play to qualify for official PGA Tour stats, but I do know this: driving accuracy is beyond important at this event. You need to go long and you need to pick your spots. Not that you can' recover if you miss, but with the bunkers on this course (ungodly deep and steep) and the rough that isn't rough (it's thick, tall reeds and grass), you can't wage war on the fringes and recover as easily as you would on a typical American course. Tiger's strength has never been accuracy off the tee. We'll see if he can get it right here.
#IMGRIGHT#- Tiger is the outstanding favorite in the books and parlors around the globe (listed as a 9-2 favorite to win by BoDog.com). This doesn't mean Tiger is guaranteed a win... it certainly doesn't mean Tiger is going to dominate... it simply means the book feels the number of people that will still bet on Tiger at that number (horrendous odds) is enough to at least match the numbers bet on other golfers with much more favorable odds. Golf wagering tends to bring odds that give tremendous benefit to the winner. Consider the odds: you are picking ONE golfer out of a field with over 100 candidates to consider. The public knows and adores Tiger - and as we noted, they are getting a full week of Tiger coverage suggesting this course is right up his alley and the major experience is where he shines (this part is somewhat true, more in a moment) - and the PUBLIC will bet heavy on him. Getting 100 to wager on Tiger will outweigh the 10 who gamble on Lee Westwood at 8-1 or Rory McIlroy at 10-1.
- Weather reports put winds over 50 miles per hour at St. Andrews this week. It has been over 10 years since a European golfer won this event. The list of Euro talents competing and winning on the PGA Tour today may be as high as ever. All of this is working against Tiger. Weather is as unpredictable as Tiger's game right now and every element that stands between consistency and Tiger is a strike against my desire to wager on him this week. There are too many Euro talents playing too well right now with St. Andrews resumes that I like much more than Tiger's own (they play this track every year as part of the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship). Graeme McDowell , Tim Clark, Geoff Ogilvy, Ian Poulter, Camilo Villegas, Ernie Els (twice), Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose, Lee Westwood: all Euro golfers with wins on the PGA Tour this season. That scares me more than anything when the discussion turns to Tiger: on this course, in these conditions, you simply cannot ignore so many golfers who are easily capable of punching Tiger in the face.
- In fantasy leagues, it is this simple: if Tiger doesn't win, he's not of value in 99% of the fantasy leagues out there. The public perception, the Vegas perception, and in some ways, the historical perception is suggesting he will not only win but could dominate the field. You will pay more for him than any other golfer in the field this week in auction leagues. That gamble, no matter the event or venue or golfer, can only be rewarded with ONE result: a win.
Based on what you've seen so far, would you make that bet on Tiger?
~ Stock Up ~
- Vaughn Taylor
His standing as 34th on the Money Leaders should be clue enough to suggest Taylor is enjoying a positive campaign, or maybe you noted his name near the top of the last week's final leaderboard at the John Deere Classic. Either way there is indication that fantasy owners should be taking note of Vaughn Taylor and the reward he is providing on the course these days.
Through 17 Tour starts Taylor has 12 cuts made but a whopping five have resulted in top-10 finishes, including two of the last three. Taylor first started feeling the swing at the Texas Open with a T34 finish (a great week screwed by a 74 on Sunday), and with a T37 at the St. Jude (another bad round, this time a 72 on Saturday, ruined the effort) he was on his way. That brought a T9 finish at the Travelers Championship (67-65-67-70... again, without that fall on Sunday he might win), a T11 finish at the AT&T Nationals (a 67 on Sunday put him on the board), and a T6 finish at the John Deere (71-66-64-67).
If he continues to hold serve over the weekends and put up low numbers on Sunday, he'll continue to serve the fantasy golf owner well.
~ Stock Down ~
- K.J. Choi
Choi occupies the spot directly below Taylor on the Money Leaders (35th) but the bulk of that was earned via a stretch found early in the season. Choi started hot with positive finishes at almost every Tour stop up and through The Masters (T4), including T15 at the Farmers Insurance Open, T21 at Pebble Beach, T20 at Mayakoba, T17 at the Arnold Palmer, and a near win at the Transitions Championship.
However, even with 14 cuts made in 15 Tour starts, it is hard to look at a golfer of Choi's caliber and suggest the run has satisfied fantasy players. In seven Tour starts since that first major Choi has found the top 30 just once - T13 at the Crowne Plaza Invite. There was T41 at the Heritage, T37 at THE PLAYERS, T52 at Memorial, T47 at Pebble Beach for the US Open, and last week a missed cut on a vulnerable TPC Deere Run course.
Choi is currently ranked 36th on the Tour in driving accuracy, 9th in greens in regulation, and 40th in putting. He should be doing better... but he's not. We'll see if that changes this week at St. Andrews (we wouldn't gamble on it).
- Official World Golf Rankings
RANK PLAYER POINTS
1 Tiger Woods 10.18
2 Phil Mickelson 9.47
3 Lee Westwood 8.09
4 Steve Stricker 7.55
5 Jim Furyk 6.72
6 Ernie Els 5.88
7 Luke Donald 5.45
8 Ian Poulter 5.45
9 Rory McIlroy 5.33
10 Paul Casey 5.09
11 Graeme McDowell 4.88
12 Anthony Kim 4.81
13 Martin Kaymer 4.72
14 Robert Allenby 4.36
15 Padraig Harrington 4.11
16 Justin Rose 4.03
17 Camilo Villegas 3.90
18 Zach Johnson 3.90
19 Edoardo Molinari 3.84
20 Retief Goosen 3.82
21 Tim Clark 3.80
22 Lucas Glover 3.65
23 Matt Kuchar 3.63
24 Sean O'Hair 3.62
25 Charl Schwartzel 3.59
- FedEx Cup Point Standings
PLAYER FEDEX POINT
Ernie Els 1,751
Steve Stricker 1,561
Justin Rose 1,542
Phil Mickelson 1,521
Jim Furyk 1,479
Tim Clark 1,280
Ben Crane 1,222
Anthony Kim 1,215
Dustin Johnson 1,137
Robert Allenby 1,129
Bubba Watson 1,124
Matt Kuchar 1,114
Camilo Villegas 1,091
Jeff Overton 1,063
Rickie Fowler 1,045
Bo Van Pelt 1,036
Zach Johnson 975
J.B. Holmes 973
Bill Haas 949
Jason Bohn 901
Ricky Barnes 892
K.J. Choi 872
Hunter Mahan 868
Jason Day 857
Ryan Moore 832
- PGA Money Leaders
PLAYER EARNINGS
Ernie Els $3,941,028
Phil Mickelson $3,199,838
Justin Rose $3,159,748
Steve Stricker $2,963,122
Jim Furyk $2,883,915
Tim Clark $2,866,198
Anthony Kim $2,518,521
Robert Allenby $2,471,868
Ben Crane $2,396,357
Matt Kuchar $2,331,955
Camilo Villegas $2,330,936
Dustin Johnson $2,312,724
Jeff Overton $2,286,341
Rickie Fowler $2,083,691
Bubba Watson $2,072,761
Bo Van Pelt $2,069,004
J.B. Holmes $1,881,498
Zach Johnson $1,870,318
Jason Bohn $1,763,673
Hunter Mahan $1,757,016
Ian Poulter $1,735,066
Ricky Barnes $1,704,668
Ryan Moore $1,686,873
Paul Casey $1,652,906
Jason Day $1,650,792
Bryan Douglass is the Managing Editor of the Fanball Sports Network as well as an Associate Editor for Fanball.com, providing analysis and commentary for the NFL and PGA neighborhoods of the world's preeminent sports community. He also serves as the Denver Broncos Correspondent (BroncosStable.com) for the Fanball Sports Network. You can find his work syndicated at RotoTimes.com, TheGolfChannel.com, and Comcast.net You can contact Bryan via email, Facebook, and Twitter.
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